This morning my husband headed downtown for his first call to jury duty in many years. He's a good choice, I must say. He's thoughtful, intelligent, a good listener and understands how to weigh evidence. If he ends up on a jury, he'll be fair and will serve justice well, as it should be.
His call to jury duty got me thinking more about my post last week about getting flu shots, and the poll that brought so many comments. Those comments, with few exceptions, were anti-vaccine and put me in my place, some calling me arrogant and ignorant.
Arrogant? Perhaps. But ignorant? I think not. Here's the evidence -- why I take the stand I do:
No matter how you feel about vaccines, the evidence is VERY STRONGLY IN FAVOR of the benefits of flu vaccines. The following information is publicly available from the CDC through VAERS, the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (which, I will remind you, has no monetary stake in whether we get vaccinated or not). As of December 23 (the latest information):
- 92.6 million doses of H1N1 vaccine have been distributed
- 6945 "adverse events" have been reported, mostly considered "non-serious" (e.g. someone's arm was sore)
- 410 of those 6945 adverse events were reported as serious (life threatening, including death or major disability)
- 29 of the 410 were deaths
- 32 incidents of Guillian-Barre Syndrome were reported, but are not yet assessed to be a result of the vaccine (In the United States, 80-160 cases of GBS are expected to occur each week, regardless of vaccination)
- According to the report, these outcomes are considered to be equal to those of annual seasonal flu vaccine.
So now I do my math:
Of the 92.6 million doses of vaccine, 29 people have died. The math (which has taken me a half dozen tries to get right) comes out to one's chances of dying from the vaccine as .00000000313 % -- meaning -- less than 1 in 3 million.
As of November 14 (latest figures) the CDC estimate 9,260 people have died from getting the H1N1 flu. These are people who did not get the vaccine. They also estimate 47 million people have had the H1N1 swine flu. That figures to a .000197 % chance of dying from the flu -- meaning -- 1 in 5,075.
Put another way - my chances of dying from the flu are 591% GREATER than dying from the vaccine.
I am a healthy person to begin with. These statistics don't even take into account the many people I come into contact with who aren't healthy or who are at high risk (like small children.) If I pass the flu on to them, and they get sick and die....
I would like to think I don't come into contact with people who are at risk -- I work from home and don't go out much. BUT -- I go to supermarkets and other stores where I touch shopping carts and goods I'm considering purchasing. I go to church or synagogue. I go to the studio to tape my radio show, etc. All together, there may be hundreds or thousands of people who touch things I've just touched (or I touch things they have just touched...) Even if I think I wash and sanitize constantly.... I can't keep up with it 100% of the time...
...and neither can you.
Can I, in all good conscience, not get that shot? (Can you?)
I have no excuses. My husband, on that jury, would have to look at the evidence -- and he would have to decide that the evidence points to reasonable people choosing to get the flu vaccine because reasonable people need to protect others, not just themselves. OR, reasonable people should be held accountable.
Do I think vaccines are a perfect solution? Of course not. And yes, of course I understand that people who have allergies or are otherwise negatively affected by vaccines must avoid them -- that makes perfect sense -- and for them, the evidence means they need to do whatever else they can to protect themselves and the others around them. The evidence tells them they are at more risk by getting the vaccine than by not getting it.
But for the rest of us -- it's the vaccine that makes sense until something else, less invasive, comes along. The best tool we smart patients have for keeping the flu at bay is the flu shot. And truthfully, we are lucky to have it. More than 500,000 Americans died from the 1918 flu -- before vaccines were available.
Here's a completely different line of thought for those of you conspiracy theorists out there:
Regular readers know I'm very much about following the money. When something in healthcare doesn't make sense, it's usually because there is a profit motive behind it. For those of you who cite commentary about how bad these vaccines are and who think they are developed simply so pharmaceutical companies can make money from them - have you considered how much pharma could just LOVE IT if we all catch the flu? They make peanuts from vaccines - perhaps just a bit better than break-even. They could make MUCH more money by selling us those drugs that relieve symptoms. (I've often thought the cure for the common cold is out there -- but it's kept under wraps because pharma makes so much more money from the remedies.)
So for today -- follow the evidence. You may not like it - and to be honest, I don't either. I would much prefer to stay in my own little world and think I can't catch - or pass on -- the flu. But the evidence tells me otherwise, and based on that evidence there is only one real answer. If you don't like it? Then show me some evidence -- some real numbers -- that prove your point.
PS: I will say -- for those dissenters among you -- I love that you have given this so much consideration, and I love that you feel empowered by it! The point is not for us to agree -- it's for us to make our own choices, and that's what you have done. Even if I don't agree with you, I applaud you for making the choices that are right for you -- because that's what being an informed patient is all about.
PPS: My condolences to the loved ones of those who died from the flu shot. For you, this is a moot point, and for you, your evidence says otherwise. I understand that because I see it in so many other aspects of our dysfunctional healthcare system. There is nothing I can say here to make your sorrows go away and for that I am truly sorry.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Learn more or join the conversation!
NEWSLETTER | FORUM | BIO | TWITTER
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Photo © Microsoft Image Gallery
I love your lead into the flu article, using your husband’s jury duty, Your brain is always in high gear!!
I have not gotten the flu shot;, however, I plan on doing so.
Thank you for being you. BTW, LOVE the book.
The one fallacy in this argument is that scores of physicians absolutely refuse to report some adverse events to VAERS. Have you seen the hundreds of complaints on blogs from women who had miscarriages right after their H1N1 shot, but their doctors wouldn’t even consider notifying VAERS? The shots may or may not have had anything to do with their miscarriages… but if doctors don’t report it, how will anyone ever know? Plus, it’s commonly accepted that the VAERS reports reflect less than 10 percent of all possible events.
Just Visiting — the one fallacy in your argument is that VAERs (nor other reporting mechanisms to the CDC or FDA) does not reply on doctors to report. Anyone — patients, caregivers, parents — or providers — may report an adverse event.
I’m not sure where you get the “commonly accepted” — I have never heard that. It may be true, but I’ve not been able to find any credible source that confirms or even suggests that.
Even if you are right — say 290 people have died — it’s still a very small fraction — SMALL fraction — of the number of people who have died from the flu itself.
First, I am embarrased to say I don’t know what that URL space is all about. Secondly, I will probably get the H1N1 shot having read all the above. However, I remain puzzled as to what happened to the different levels of suseptability? I will be 70 years old in February. I remember hearing when all the H1N1 vaccine talk started circulating that people of my generation had developed some kind of immunity because we were alive during some other flu outbreak in the 60’s or 70’s and didn’t need to have the H1N1 shot. It would seem that doesn’t apply anymore. I know of no one my age who has had the shot or plans to get it. I think my generation needs specific info aimed at us about this vaccine.
Checking your math it looks like you mean to say that there is a “591 times greater chance” of dying from the flu than the vaccine rather than “591% greater chance.” (591% greater is only 5.91 times greater.)